| Autor: |
Warwick, John J., Cale, William G. |
| Zdroj: |
Journal of Environmental Engineering; October 1987, Vol. 113 Issue: 5 p1102-1119, 18p |
| Abstrakt: |
A methodology utilizing Monte Carlo simulation techniques is developed to ascertain the probability (likelihood) of obtaining a model with known performance characteristics (accuracy and reliability). The mathematical model selected for investigation is the classic Streeter‐Phelps dissolved oxygen equation. Monte Carlo analyses are used to quantify model output uncertainty caused by input parameter measurement error. The proposed methodology includes the three steps common to implementing any model: calibration, validation, and subsequent verification. Results indicate that typically employed sampling strategies cannot achieve adequate likelihoods of obtaining a model with acceptable performance characteristics. It is found that model performance can be optimized in terms of downstream site location and sampling frequency. Finally, a procedural outline is presented to demonstrate the application of the developed methodology to any model. |
| Databáze: |
Supplemental Index |
| Externí odkaz: |
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