| Abstrakt: |
For the purpose of estimating total capacity utilization a potential output measure is calculated for the Austrian economy by means of macro-economic production functions. The production functions (Cobb-Douglas, dynamic Cobb-Douglas, C.E.S.) are estimated with yearly as well as with quarterly data, using input data (labor, capital) standardized for differences in utilization. The gap between actual GNP (without agriculture) and the potential output estimated with quarterly data is a measure of global capacity utilization. This measure can be used to date business cycle turning points. The cyclical pattern resulting from these calculations is compared with more traditional business cycle measures, such as growth rates and deviations from trends. The turning points resulting from the potential output gap method practically always coincide with the ones calculated with the help of deviations from a trend. |
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