| Abstrakt: |
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has been making use of increased amounts and types of data and reports on states' nuclear and nuclear-related activities. This information includes declarations provided by states (including those made in accordance with safeguards agreements and additional protocols), data collected by the IAEA (including inspectors' findings, environmental sampling, and measurement data), and other safeguards-relevant information available to the IAEA (from open sources, including geospatial data). This information is integral for the IAEA to fulfil the safeguards objectives common to all states with comprehensive safeguards agreements in force, which are to detect (1) any diversion of declared nuclear material, (2) any undeclared production or processing of nuclear material in declared facilities and locations outside of facilities, and (3) any undeclared nuclear material or activities in the state as a whole. The Physical Model describes the main technical activities involved in a nuclear fuel cycle, from source material acquisition to the production of weapon-usable material. The Physical Model identifies and describes indicators of each process, including specially designed and dual-use equipment, nuclear and non-nuclear materials, related technology/training/R&D, environmental signatures, and other observables of the process. These indicators have assigned strengths, depending on whether they have a weak, medium, or strong specificity to the particular process within a state's fuel cycle. The Physical Model is a living encyclopedia of this knowledge as well as a seamless searchable resource. This allows, among other capabilities, objective open source collection of state nuclear fuel cycle-related activities, capabilities, and nuclear material flows against the framework of the Physical Model, as done by state evaluation groups, using IAEA search and visualization tools. For example, Physical Model-based visualizations of declared nuclear material flows will help to determine typical material flows and scales of activities in a state. The IAEA makes use of many disparate sources of data used in a variety of safeguards processes. The Physical Model is the bridge between these data and processes. Updating, improving, and enhancing the Physical Model benefits multiple stakeholders in the IAEA, including those analysts needing to search for and manage open source and geospatial information. As revised, the Physical Model will also be a stronger resource for visualizing material flows and potential acquisition paths. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
