Years late and millions short: A predictive audit of economic impacts for coal mines in British Columbia, Canada.

Autor: Collard, Rosemary, Dempsey, Jessica, Muir, Bruce, Allan, Robyn, Herd, Abigail, Bode, Peter
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Zdroj: Environmental Impact Assessment Review; May2023, Vol. 100, pN.PAG-N.PAG, 1p
Abstrakt: Environmental impact assessments (EIAs) include economic benefit predictions that influence whether project proposals proceed to the construction and operational phases of development. Decision-makers often reason these benefits outweigh the potential adverse effects to environmental and social valued components, e.g. endangered species. But rarely are the economic impacts monitored and audited. This paper evaluates predicted and actual economic benefits through a predictive audit of three coal mines in the critical habitat of endangered caribou in British Columbia, Canada. Based on data collected from publicly available documents, including financial reporting, we compare the predicted employment and corporate tax revenue against the projects' actual performance for these two indicators. Economic impacts were significantly overestimated for both indicators: only 59% of forecasted employment and 34% of forecasted tax revenue materialized. The results challenge the credibility of trade-off analyses that underpin rationales for these project approvals and more broadly raise questions about the confidence and uncertainty of economic predictions in other EIAs and decision rationales. The study echoes existing calls for rigorous economic follow-up and demonstrates the critical role of predictive audits in that undertaking. • We undertake a predictive audit of three coal mines in BC, Canada. • We audit two direct economic benefit indicators: employment and corporate tax revenue. • Both indicators were significantly overstated in the mines' EIAs. • The mines' regulatory approval rested on inaccurately predicted trade-offs. • Predictive audits are crucial to assess the credibility of trade-off analyses in EIAs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Databáze: Supplemental Index
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