| Abstrakt: |
Fire disaster is one of the most common types of accidents during subway operation, which poses a significant threat to people lives, environment and social property. Meanwhile, subway fire can induce multiple secondary accidents such as collapse of building, stampede, and spread of gas, increasing the fire injuries. The existing research on subway fire risk analysis mainly concentrates on estimating the occurrence probability of the primary fire disaster and a rough assessment of its risk loss. For subway fires, the serious consequences are mainly induced by secondary accidents such as high-temperature damage to the structure, trampling, and personnel evacuation obstacles. This paper presents a safety risk decision approach with detailed step-by-step procedures to fire secondary accidents, consisting of i) the primary fire probability analysis using fuzzy fault tree (FFT), ii) probability estimation of secondary fire accidents based on historic accident data and Jaccard index, iii) loss prediction of secondary accidents through numerical simulation using Pyrosim and Pathfinder and iv) decision making of the safety risk level for secondary accidents. A case study of a subway station in Chengdu, China, is presented to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed approach and its application potential. The proposed approach can be used as a decision tool to provide technical support for subway station fire design and safety assurance during operation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
