| Autor: |
LA FOUCADE, ALTHEA DIANNE, GABRIEL, SAMUEL, SCOTT, EWAN, METIVIER, CHARMAINE, LAPTISTE, CHRISTINE |
| Předmět: |
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| Zdroj: |
Social & Economic Studies; 2021, Vol. 70 Issue 1, p35-53, 19p |
| Abstrakt: |
For many Caribbean countries, tourism represents a major source of foreign exchange and is the main contributor to gross domestic product. Therefore, the timely production of reliable estimates for tourism demand is paramount, especially in light of its seasonal nature. This article utilises a quasi-optimisation algorithm to produce optimised values for the generation coefficient (weights) of the grey GM(1,1) forecasting model, together with two modified grey GM(1,1) models. With data for 2008-2015, the parameter-optimised models were then used to produce insample and out-of-sample forecasts of tourism demand (stay-over tourist arrivals) for selected Caribbean countries. These estimates were also compared to those produced by the standard versions of the models. The results indicate that while the standard models can generate reasonably accurate results, in some instances the performance of the models improved noticeably with the use of the optimised parameters. Overall, most of the in-sample and out-of-sample mean absolute percentage errors are well below 5%, indicating a high level of forecasting accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Databáze: |
Supplemental Index |
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