| Autor: |
Tanimoto, M., Robins, J. B., O'Neill, M. F., Halliday, I. A., Campbell, A. B. |
| Zdroj: |
Marine & Freshwater Research; Nov2012, Vol. 63 Issue 8, p715-726, 11p |
| Abstrakt: |
Many aquatic species are linked to environmental drivers such as temperature and salinity through processes such as spawning, recruitment and growth. Information is needed on how fished species may respond to altered environmental drivers under climate change so that adaptive management strategies can be developed. Barramundi (Lates calcarifer) is a highly prized species of the Indo-West Pacific, whose recruitment and growth is driven by river discharge. We developed a monthly age- and length-structured population model for barramundi. Monte Carlo Markov Chain simulations were used to explore the population's response to altered river discharges under modelled total licenced water abstraction and projected climate change, derived and downscaled from Global Climate Model A1FI. Mean values of exploitable biomass, annual catch, maximum sustainable yield and spawning stock size were significantly reduced under scenarios where river discharge was reduced; despite including uncertainty. These results suggest that the upstream use of water resources and climate change have potential to significantly reduce downstream barramundi stock sizes and harvests and may undermine the inherent resilience of estuarine-dependent fisheries. Understanding the possible effects of climate changes on key fishery species may allow managers and fishers to be better prepared for the future. A population model for barramundi (Lates calcarifer) that incorporated the effects of river discharge on recruitment and growth was used to explore the population response when discharge was altered under full licenced water abstraction and projected climate change, derived and downscaled from Global Climate model A1FI. Results indicated that managers of natural resources should be as concerned about the downstream effects of water abstraction as they are about long-term climate change. Consistently reduced river discharges into estuaries may undermine the inherent resilience of these systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Databáze: |
Complementary Index |
| Externí odkaz: |
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