| Abstrakt: |
This latest Russia Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 47.21% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2014, while providing 71.01% of supply. CEE regional oil use of 5.42mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 will rise to an estimated 6.02mn b/d in 2010. It should increase to around 6.68mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was 8.89mn b/d in 2001, and in 2010 will average an estimated 13.67mn b/d. It is set to rise to 14.44mn b/d by 2014. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 3.47mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 7.65mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 7.76mn b/d by 2014. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have the greatest production growth potential, although Russia will remain the key exporter. In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 consumed an estimated 638.6bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 728.8bcm targeted for 2014, representing 14.1% growth. Production of an estimated 788.4bcm in 2010 should reach 936.4bcm in 2014, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 149.8bcm in 2010 to 207.5bcm by the end of the period. Russia's share of gas consumption in 2010 is an estimated 61.94%, while its share of production is put at 71.03%. By 2014, its share of demand is forecast to be 58.74%, with the country accounting for 67.82% of supply. For 2010 as a whole, we continue to assume an average OPEC basket price of US$83.00/bbl, +36.4% year-on-year (y-o-y). Risk is now clearly on the downside, thanks to the slow progress made during June. However, a full-year outturn in excess of US$80 remains a strong possibility and we see no need to review our assumptions at this point. The 2010 US WTI price is now put at US$87.63/bbl. BMI is assuming an OPEC basket price of US$85.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$89.74. Our central assumption for 2012 and beyond is an OPEC price averaging US$90.00/bbl, delivering WTI at just over US$95.00. For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$95.45/bbl. The overall y-o-y rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 36%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$93.23/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 35% increase from the 2009 level. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$95.90/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$83.53/bbl, up 41% from the previous year's level. Russian real GDP is assumed by BMI to rise by 4.7% in 2010. We are assuming average annual growth of 4.5% in 2010-2014. State-controlled Gazprom has a virtual monopoly over gas transportation and exports. With it being the main provider, we see gas output rising from an estimated 560bcm in 2010 to 635bcm by 2014. Russian domestic companies control most of Russia's oil production. Rosneft is the main state-controlled oil producer. The companies delivered 2009 output of crude oil and condensates averaging 10.03mn b/d. Oil production seems likely to rise only slowly over the next few years. Our 2014 production forecast is for 10.25mn b/d. Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Russian oil production of 6.25%, with output rising slowly from an estimated 10.25mn b/d in 2010 to a peak of 11.00mn b/d in 2016/17, before easing to 10.89mn b/d by 2019. Oil consumption during the period is forecast to rise by 24.9%, permitting exports peaking at 7.69mn b/d in 2017. Gas consumption is expected to be up from an estimated 396bcm to 473bcm by 2019, providing export potential peaking at 213bcm in 2015. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report. Russia now shares third place with Turkey in BMI's composite Business Environment (BE) ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It has a share of third place with Poland in BMI's updated upstream Bus [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
