| Abstrakt: |
This paper tests a multivariate time series model of West European fertility change based on Easterlin's social and economic analysis of post-1945 fertility trends in the United States. Results indicate that fertility trends in Western Europe during the years 1950-1981 are associated with relative unemployment levels, and in some countries with age specific labor force supply constraints. Ex-post forcasts of fertility are generated up to 1981 for England and Wales, France, Sweden, and the United States. The difficulties with providing ex-ante forcasts are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER] |
