| Autor: |
Nazario Tartaglione, Marco Casaioli, Christophe Accadia, Silas Chr. Michaelides |
| Předmět: |
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| Zdroj: |
Meteorological Applications; Mar2008, Vol. 15 Issue 1, p85-95, 11p |
| Abstrakt: |
This article statistically analyses the location errors of the precipitation patterns forecast by three limited area models, namely the FifthGeneration NCARPenn State Mesoscale Model MM5, the QUADRICS BOlogna Limited Area Model QBOLAM and the Regional Atmospheric Modelling System RAMS, over the Calabria region Italy for the period October 2000–May 2002. Contiguous rain area CRA analysis is the diagnostic tool used to assess and quantify the position errors of the precipitation forecasts with respect to the observed precipitation patterns. Observation gridded analyses were obtained by means of the Barnes algorithm on the available rain gauge observations.Moreover, an approach to measure the quality of precipitation forecasts routinely by means of a global indicator called CRA Mean Shift CMS that summarizes the CRA verification outcomes is proposed. The CMS index would represent a statistical indicator of model quality in forecasting the correct positions of precipitation patterns.The models tendency to misplace the forecast precipitation patterns towards a particular direction was tested by using a bootstrap procedure.All models seem to show statistically poor abilities in forecasting the correct precipitation pattern position over the verification domain considered. As far as the tendency towards a particular direction is concerned, only the RAMS model seems to show a systematic horizontal misplacement of precipitation patterns towards a particular direction. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Databáze: |
Complementary Index |
| Externí odkaz: |
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