| Abstrakt: |
In the context of preparing population projections for Papua New Guinea up to 2030, two series of projections were prepared; one incorporating the effects of AIDS, the other excluding these effects. Comparison of the two series showed that the impact of the AIDS epidemic was already evident in 2000, with the number of deaths rising and life expectancy being already lower than it otherwise would have been. By the year 2030, the impact of AIDS would potentially be large. The increased deaths would lower the rate of population growth and reduce life expectancy significantly. This article demonstrates that given moderate demographic assumptions, life expectancy would be about eight years lower with AIDS than it might otherwise be in the absence of AIDS. In the worst case scenario, by 2030, life expectancy will return to the levels observed in the 1980s and the number of HIV-positive persons will possibly reach 300,000. The article concludes that Papua New Guinea will face two related challenges over the next decades; sustained population growth and-the reduced life expectancy, and lower quality of life as a result of the AIDS epidemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
