| Abstrakt: |
venue for crises and terrorism. Next to organised crime, international terrorism has become the highest priority security threat in Europe. Many terrorist organisations have an active presence in Europe. Some are active against certain European states, while others act against non-European states, using Europe as a logistical base. Terrorist attacks such as the simultaneous bomb attacks in Madrid in 2004, the taking of hostages in a Moscow theatre, the simultaneous bomb attacks in London in 2005, the attempts to do something similar in 2006 etc. are sobering examples of the terrorist threat in Europe. According to EUROPOL, altogether 498 terrorist incidents occurred in EU states in 2006. The vast majority of them merely resulted in limited material damage and were not intended to kill. The key weapon used was the Improvised Explosive Device. In the past few years we have been witness to major arrests of terrorist suspects every month by the security services of various European states. In 2006, a total of 706 individuals were arrested for being suspects involved in terrorism. Half of those arrests were related to Islamist terrorism. In this case, the process of radicalisation (which also includes a growing number of militant converts into Islam) has become an extremely problematic and sensitive topic for Europe. However, most attacks in 2006 were carried out by ethnonationalist and separatist terrorist organisations, whereas a trend analysis shows that left-wing and anarchist terrorism currently remains at a relatively low level. Al-Qaeda's declaration of war against all infidels, its increasing propaganda involving video statements in the English language and its quest to acquire weapons of mass destruction do not create a reassuring context. Accordingly, anti-terrorism and counter-terrorism have become the key focus of national security policies and international organisations. Countries have been paying ever more attention to the proper criminalisation of terrorist activities in their legislation, implying that not only direct terrorist activities but also many indirect terrorist activities have been criminalised, while improving security preparedness, establishing new organisational units within the relevant ministries, establishing new interministerial and interagency counter-terrorist bodies responsible for related coordination, establishing new information systems, increasing the frequency of counter-terrorism exercises, reinforcing the foundations for effective international co-operation as regards the prevention and response to terrorism, expanding budgets for counter-terrorism etc. Such changes have been of a functional and system or institutional nature, incorporating new missions, strategies, doctrines, laws, structures etc. Naturally, not all countries share the same threat level. More threatened European countries include the United Kingdom, Spain, France, Italy and Germany. Certain other countries surely do not face such a high threat and yet they are co-operating intensively with the more threatened countries. The Western Balkans is historically the least stable region of Europe. The security situation in this region is gradually improving and the potential for armed inter-ethnic or interstate conflict has been reduced. However, the indicators of security threats and risks are still the highest in this part of Europe. Let me point out some of today's complex problems. • The future status of Kosovo is uncertain – it seems that any kind of solution could potentially lead to a further escalation of the crisis and even terrorism. Fears exist that, if Kosovo is given complete independence, a bad example will be made for those involved in many similar ethnic situations in Europe (e.g. a domino effect starting from Bosnia and Herzegovina and Macedonia through to Spain and Russia). An unchanged status to the “legal limbo” could, on the other hand, spark a wave of violent protests, political instability and chaos. Other negotiated solutions (the partition of Kosovo and controlled independence) also hold crisis potential. • Bosnia and Herzegovina has to resolve some important political and structural problems vis-à-vis creating a unified country. The central state institutions are weak and the Republika Srpska and the Bosnian-Croat Federation have been assigned a high degree of self-governance. The ethnically-based division used in resolving many national problems still frequently occurs. A consensus on the central issues is very difficult to achieve without pressure from the international community. • Macedonia is, despite the introduction of an innovative national inter-ethnic integration model, still struggling with inter-ethnic dialogue at the political level. The solution of the Kosovo problem will heavily affect Macedonia. Fears of the country breaking up have been not allayed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
