An examination of the generalizability of the LSI-R and VRAG probability bins.

Autor: Mills, J. F., Jones, M. N., Kroner, D. G.
Zdroj: Criminal Justice & Behavior; 5/1/2005, Vol. 32 Issue 5, p565, 20p
Abstrakt: Statistics such as the Pearsons r and Receiver Operating Characteristics are often used to test the generalization of criminal and violence prediction instruments. However, these analyses overlook potential error in the assessment of risk if the rates of offending within the initial validation samples are assumed accurate for other samples. This study examined the generalizability of the Level of Service InventoryRevised and Violence Risk Appraisal Guide probability bins in a predominantly violent correctional sample. The findings showed that the initial bin probabilities were not transferable to our sample of predominantly violent male offenders. An empirical method of optimal binning was introduced. The discussion centered on the accurate use of bin probabilities in the communication of risk.
Databáze: Complementary Index