| Abstrakt: |
This study examines how population change is associated with changes in sociodemographics and economic outcomes across diverse geographic contexts in the United States from 2000 to 2020. Using Census Tract-level data and generalized additive models (GAMs), we found that communities experiencing population growth showed significant improvements in socioeconomic indicators: for example, a 50% population increase in Northeast metropolitan non-coastal areas was associated with a $10,062 rise [95% confidence interval (CI) = $9,181, $10,944] in median household income. Conversely, areas with population decline faced increasing challenges to community composition: communities experiencing a 50% population decline in West coastal metropolitan areas saw their median age increase by 2.556 years (95% CI = 2.23, 2.89 years), indicating an accelerated aging population. We observed a positive relationship between population growth and local economic growth, with areas experiencing population decline or slow growth showing below-average economic growth. While population change alone explained 10.1% of the variance in county-level GDP growth, incorporating sociodemographic shifts alongside population change using a partial least squares regression (PLSR) more than doubled the explanatory power to 21.4%. Overall, we often found the strength of relationships and sometimes the direction varied by geographic context: coastal areas showed distinct patterns from inland regions, and metropolitan areas responded differently than rural ones. For instance, the percentage of owner-occupied housing was negatively associated with population growth in metropolitan areas, but positively associated in non-metropolitan areas. Our research provides valuable insights for policymakers and planners working to address community changes, particularly in the context of anticipated climate-induced migration. The results suggest that strategies for maintaining economic vitality need to consider not just population retention, but also demographic profiles and socioeconomic opportunities across different geographic contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
