| Abstrakt: |
The need for reliable estimates of solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) for operational space weather nowcasting and forecasting has motivated the development of new model of solar irradiance variability in 59 wavelength bins between 1 and 1,750 Å. The model employs a nonlinear parameterization of rebinned daily FISM2 irradiances and is termed NEUVAC: Nonlinear Extreme Ultraviolet Irradiance Model for Aeronomic Calculations. The model is parameterized in terms of F10.7 and 54‐day averaged F10.7 in a backwards‐looking window. The model takes advantage of the high accuracy and resolution of FISM2, and the consistent availability of F10.7 data in order to provide the space weather community with an empirical irradiance model that requires only two inputs, and is applicable for solar EUV forecasting. Additionally, the model is capable of running ensembles and providing estimates of quantified uncertainty for usage by downstream ionosphere‐thermosphere models. The model is evaluated against native FISM2 outputs in the 37 bins used by the EUVAC model, as well as the bins specified by Solomon and Qian. Its accuracy and precision is also compared to that of EUVAC, HEUVAC, and the HFG models. Plain Language Summary: NEUVAC, a new empirical model of solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance is presented. The model represents solar EUV irradiance in 59 wavelength bins between 1 and 1,750 Å, and is constructed between F10.7, 54‐day averaged F10.7 in a backwards‐looking window, and binned estimates of solar irradiance provided by the FISM2 model. NEUVAC is evaluated against FISM2 and compared with other empirical models such as EUVAC, HEUVAC, and the HFG models. Key Points: NEUVAC, a new empirical model of solar extreme ultraviolet irradiance based on FISM2, is presentedThe model performance is compared to outputs from EUVAC, HEUVAC, and HFGThe model quantifies uncertainty in a manner compatible with global atmospheric models [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
