Predicting hospital bed utilisation for post-surgical care by means of the Monte Carlo method with historical data.
| Autor: | Wong, Andy, Eley, Rob, Corry, Paul, Hoad, Brendan, Yarlagadda, Prasad |
|---|---|
| Předmět: |
HOSPITAL utilization
MEDICAL care use POSTOPERATIVE care COMPUTER simulation PREDICTION models RESEARCH funding CLINICAL decision support systems DECISION making in clinical medicine RETROSPECTIVE studies TERTIARY care DESCRIPTIVE statistics ELECTIVE surgery MEDICAL records ACQUISITION of data LENGTH of stay in hospitals CONFIDENCE intervals |
| Zdroj: | Australian Health Review; 2024, Vol. 48 Issue 6, p642-647, 6p |
| Abstrakt: | Objective: This study aim was to develop a predictive model of bed utilisation to support the decision process of elective surgery planning and bed management to improve post-surgical care. Methods: This study undertook a retrospective analysis of de-identified data from a tertiary metropolitan hospital in Southeast Queensland, Australia. With a reference sample from 2 years of historical data, a model based on the Monte Carol method has been developed to predict hospital bed utilisation for post-surgical care of patients who have undergone surgical procedures. A separate test sample from comparable data of 8 weeks of actual utilisation was employed to assess the performance of the prediction model. Results: Applying the developed prediction model to an 8-week period test sample, the mean percentage error of the prediction was 1.5% and the mean absolute percentage error 5.4%. Conclusions: The predictive model developed in this study may assist in bed management and the planning process of elective surgeries, and in so doing also reduce the likelihood of Emergency Department access block. What is known about the topic? Shortage of hospital beds may lead to cancellation of surgeries. What does this paper add? Historical data could be used to predict hospital bed utilisation for post-surgical care. What are the implications for practitioners? A predictive tool is proposed, which may provide decision support to the planning of surgeries and bed management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Databáze: | Complementary Index |
| Externí odkaz: |
|