| Autor: |
Suzuki, Shin-ichi, Morooka, Hiroko, Yamazaki, Takeshi, Iwasaki, Toshiki |
| Zdroj: |
Journal of Disaster Research; Dec2024, Vol. 19 Issue 6, p991-1005, 15p |
| Abstrakt: |
The Japan Meteorological Agency defines extreme climate events as phenomena occurring once every 30 years or less. To prepare for disasters, we investigated future projections of 30-year return values of heavy precipitation in the Tohoku District of northern Japan based on a large number of ensemble warming projections that are dynamically downscaled to 5-km grids under the Social Implementation Program on Climate Change Adaptation Technology. The 30-year return values of daily and hourly precipitation are projected to significantly increase under global warming, indicating the strengthening of extremely heavy rainfall. Their averaged ratios across the Tohoku District in the 2-K and 4-K warmer climates to those in the present climate are 1.12 and 1.30 times for daily precipitation and 1.18 and 1.45 times for hourly precipitation, respectively. In particular, the 30-year return values are enormous on the eastern slopes of the Kitakami and Abukuma Mountains and the Ou Mountain Range. The rates of increase in the 30-year return values are pronounced in the northern part of Tohoku, where the surface air temperature increase is more significant than in other regions. These results suggest the need to upgrade disaster prevention measures for heavy rainfall as a climate change adaptation in the Tohoku District. We also examined the regional dependency of seasonal variation in the occurrence rates of daily and hourly extreme events. The results indicated that the occurrence rates tend to be relatively high on the Sea of Japan side of the Tohoku District in July due to the Baiu front, over the entire Tohoku District in August due to strong convective instability, and on the Pacific Ocean side due to September typhoons and autumn stationary fronts. This seasonality is projected to remain almost unchanged under warmer conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Databáze: |
Complementary Index |
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