| Abstrakt: |
The aim of the current research is to identify the factors affecting the future livability of the 6th district of Tehran metropolis and then analyze these factors to present different scenarios in the horizon of 1420. The current research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of nature. The statistical population, the statistics and information related to the year 2015 of the study area, which was obtained from the Iranian Statistics Center and the Delphi method, are municipal experts, specialists and urban elites.To collect the required data, library and field methods have been used, and to analyze the data, various future research techniques, mutual effects analysis (structural analysis) and scenario writing have been used. In this regard, future research software such as Micmac has been used. In the first round, 60 factors, in the second round, 33 factors, and in the third round, 33 factors were analyzed as effective factors without change. Experts have identified 24 key factors and 9 effective drivers. the livability of area 6 is unfavorable in different dimensions and finally four different scenarios were analyzed. Among the 33 factors, 3 main factors were selected as the key factors affecting the future of livability, which have the least influence. These variables include employment, population density, reduction of commercial-administrative per capita, extra- regional role, reduction of residential per capita, presence of higher education users, extra-regional therapeutic uses and immigration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
