| Autor: |
Ranković Perišić, Milica, Nikolić Lugonja, Tijana, Radenković, Snežana, Andrić, Andrijana, Vujić, Ante, Malidžan, Suzana, Milić, Dubravka |
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| Zdroj: |
Journal of Insect Conservation; Dec2024, Vol. 28 Issue 6, p1223-1245, 23p |
| Abstrakt: |
Hoverflies play essential roles in ecosystems, serving as pollinators and valuable indicators of environmental modifications caused by climate change. Thus, they require an adequate conservation strategy, which in turn necessitates in-depth understanding of the distribution patterns of different species and their responses to climate changes over time. To contribute to this endeavor, we used species distribution models (SDMs) to estimate the potential impact of climate changes on various hoverfly functional groups in Montenegro in the past, present, and future. We evaluated the percentage of gained or lost area for each species (85 in total) and made comparisons among five functional groups. Three models (CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR) were used to analyze past projections, and two more (MPI-ESM-LR, NORESM1-M) were used for future projections, both based on two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 an RCP 8.5) and two time frames (2050 and 2070). Our results show that the current conditions are the most optimal for the majority of the analyzed species. The phytophagous species whose larvae feed on various plant tissues are the functional group that is the most sensitive to future climate changes. The effects of these changes on hoverflies in Montenegro are likely to be intensified by the reduction of natural habitats, in combination with other threats. Our research indicated that both current and projected species richness across all studied functional groups is highest in the north-eastern region of Montenegro. In light of these findings, we propose expanding the boundaries of protected areas to ensure the conservation of hoverflies in Montenegro. Implications for insect conservation: Our findings indicate that climate changes may exert a strong impact on the distribution of all hoverfly functional groups, phytophagous species in particular. Considering that no hoverfly species is protected by the law in Montenegro, the SDM results presented here may contribute to development of effective conservation strategy for their survival, as well as to reevaluate the boundaries of protected areas designated on a national level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Databáze: |
Complementary Index |
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