Short-term associations of diarrhoeal diseases in children with temperature and precipitation in seven low- and middle-income countries from Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia in the Global Enteric Multicenter Study.

Autor: Hossain, Nasif, Madaniyazi, Lina, Ng, Chris Fook Sheng, Nasrin, Dilruba, Seposo, Xerxes Tesoro, Chua, Paul L. C., Pan, Rui, Faruque, Abu Syed Golam, Hashizume, Masahiro
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Zdroj: PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases; 10/15/2024, Vol. 18 Issue 10, p1-17, 17p
Abstrakt: Background: Diarrhoeal diseases cause a heavy burden in developing countries. Although studies have described the seasonality of diarrhoeal diseases, the association of weather variables with diarrhoeal diseases has not been well characterized in resource-limited settings where the burden remains high. We examined short-term associations between ambient temperature, precipitation and hospital visits due to diarrhoea among children in seven low- and middle-income countries. Methodology: Hospital visits due to diarrhoeal diseases under 5 years old were collected from seven sites in The Gambia, Mali, Mozambique, Kenya, India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan via the Global Enteric Multicenter Study from December 2007 to March 2011. Daily weather data during the same period were downloaded from the ERA5-Land. We fitted time-series regression models to examine the relationships of daily diarrhoea cases with daily ambient temperature and precipitation. Then, we used meta-analytic tools to examine the heterogeneity between the site-specific estimates. Principal findings: The cumulative relative risk (RR) of diarrhoea for temperature exposure (95th percentile vs. 1st percentile) ranged from 0.24 to 8.07, with Mozambique and Bangladesh showing positive associations, while Mali and Pakistan showed negative associations. The RR for precipitation (95th percentile vs. 1st percentile) ranged from 0.77 to 1.55, with Mali and India showing positive associations, while the only negative association was observed in Pakistan. Meta-analysis showed substantial heterogeneity in the association between temperature–diarrhoea and precipitation–diarrhoea across sites, with I2 of 84.2% and 67.5%, respectively. Conclusions: Child diarrhoea and weather factors have diverse and complex associations across South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Diarrhoeal surveillance system settings should be conceptualized based on the observed pattern of climate change in these locations. Author summary: Diarrhoeal diseases remain a significant public health concern, particularly in low- and middle-income nations, and understanding the environmental factors that influence their occurrence is crucial for effective prevention and management strategies. Here, we study the weather factors, such as temperature and precipitation, that could influence the prevalence of diarrhoeal diseases in children. We found that higher temperatures were associated with an increased risk of diarrhoea in some regions. Increased precipitation was associated with a higher incidence of diarrhoea in some sites. In certain sites, diarrhoeal cases decreased with rising temperatures and precipitation. These findings offer insights into the climate and geographic patterns of childhood diarrhoea, which are essential for developing targeted and efficient public health interventions. Recognizing the significant role of weather-related variables in driving child diarrhoea, it is imperative to identify the conditions associated with these patterns to enhance our understanding of the complex interplay between environmental factors and disease prevalence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Databáze: Complementary Index
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