| Abstrakt: |
Background: Dengue is a vector-borne viral infection caused by the dengue virus transmitted to humans primarily by Aedes aegypti. The year 2024 has been a historic year for dengue in Brazil, with the highest number of probable cases ever registered. Herein, we analyze the temporal trend and spatio-temporal dynamics of dengue cases in Brazil during the first nine epidemiological weeks (EW) of 2024. Methods: This is an ecological study, including all probable cases of dengue in Brazil during the period, carried out in two steps: time series analysis to assess the temporal trend and spatial analysis to identify high-risk clusters. Results: 1,345,801 probable cases of dengue were reported. The regions with the highest increasing trend were the Northeast with an average epidemiologic week percent change (AEPC) of 52.4 (95% CI: 45.5–59.7; p < 0.001) and the South with 35.9 (95% CI: 27.7–44.5; p < 0.001). There was a statistically significant increasing trend in all states, except Acre (AEPC = -4.1; 95% CI: -16.3–10; p = 0.55), Amapá (AEPC = 1.3; 95% CI: -16.2–22.3; p = 0.9) and Espírito Santo (AEPC = 8.9; 95% CI: -15.7–40.6; p = 0.5). The retrospective space-time analysis showed a cluster within the Northeast, Central-West and Southeast regions, with a radius of 515.3 km, in which 1,267 municipalities and 525,324 of the cases were concentrated (RR = 6.3; p < 0.001). Regarding the spatial variation of the temporal trend, 21 risk areas were found, all of them located in Southeast or Central-West states. The area with the highest relative risk was Minas Gerais state, where 5,748 cases were concentrated (RR = 8.1; p < 0.001). Finally, a purely spatial analysis revealed 25 clusters, the one with the highest relative risk being composed of two municipalities in Acre (RR = 6.9; p < 0.001). Conclusions: We described a detailed temporal-spatial analysis of dengue cases in the first EWs of 2024 in Brazil, which were mainly concentrated in the Southeast and Central-West regions. Overall, it is recommended that governments adopt public policies to control the the vector population in high-risk areas, as well as to prevent the spread of dengue fever to other areas of Brazil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
