| Abstrakt: |
Tourism, as a highly productive industry, has received a great deal of attention in various countries in recent decades. Isfahan is one of the cities with many attractions that has the potential to compete with other cities in attracting tourists. For this purpose, this research started with the aim of a "future" study of Isfahan as a competitive city in the field of tourism using a scenario writing approach. This research is a research with a descriptive-analytical nature that is applied in terms of purpose. The methods of data collection are library, documentary, and questionnaire. In order to analyze the information, based on the futuristic approach, the method of structural analysis and interaction balance was used using MIC MAC and Scenario Wizard software. After reviewing the research background and theoretical foundations, 221 indicators related to the study of competitive cities extracted from reliable and up-to-date sources were refined using the Delphifuzzy technique. In the next step, the structural analysis method identified key impulses from 39 refined indices. By analyzing software outputs, investment indicators, quality of tourism infrastructure, marketing effectiveness to attract tourists, and marketing planning were identified as key indicators due to the appropriate impact on the system under study. In the last stage, scenarios were developed using the interaction balance method. Twenty-seven scenarios were obtained by Scenario Wizard software, which were classified into three categories as strong and probable scenarios, high compatibility scenarios, and possible and weak scenarios. In the end, scenario baskets were formed for the future of tourism in Isfahan. According to the results, if Isfahan wants to have a favorable future in the field of tourism, it must control and develop the three indicators to attract tourists. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
