| Abstrakt: |
Objective To analyze the influence of meteorological factors on Aedes larvae density in Haikou City, Hainan Province, and to study its lagged effect, providing a basis for monitoring and controlling dengue vectors. Methods The Aedes larvae monitoring data and meteorological factor data were collected from 2017 to 2022. The X11 model was employed to decompose and examine the basic characteristics of seasonality and trend in the Aedes aegypti larval density time series. The correlation between Aedes aegypti larval density and meteorological factors was assessed using the Spearman correlation coefficient test. A distributed lag non-linear model was employed to examine the lag non-linear impact of meteorological factors on Aedes larval density. The significance test of relative risk at the longest lag time and the principle of minimizing Akaike's information criterion were utilized to ascertain the optimal parameters of the model. Results The time-series analysis of Aedes larval density revealed distinct seasonality and a decreasing trend. The distribution lag non-linear modeling results indicated that, compared to the median precipitation of 120 mm, with the increase in monthly average precipitation, the relative risk of Aedes larvae density first increased and then decreased, showing an inverted "U" shaped non-linear relationship. The longest lag time of the average precipitation was 1 month, with a lag effect on Aedes larvae density when the precipitation ranged from 119.89 mm to 562.14 mm (P<0.05), peaking at 397.98 mm (RR=1.57, 95%CI: 1.11-2.20). Compared to a median temperature of 25.35 °C, the relative risk to Aedes larvae density increased with the increase of monthly average temperature in a "J" shape. The longest lag time of average temperature was 1 month, with a lag effect on Aedes larvae density between 25.35 °C, and 30.10 °C, (P<0.05), peaking at 30.10 °C, (RR=2.24, 95%CI: 1.24-4.05). Conclusions High precipitation and high temperature both have a risk effect on Aedes larvae density, with a 1-month lag effect. Timely knowledge of the effects of meteorological factors on Aedes larvae density can provide a basis for vector prevention and control and early warning of dengue fever. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
