| Abstrakt: |
Regression models (LEEMYR: Low Energy Electron MLT geosYnchronous orbit Regression) predict hourly 4.1–30 keV electron flux at geostationary orbit (GOES‐16) using solar wind, IMF, and geomagnetic index parameters. Multiplicative interaction and polynomial terms describe synergistic and nonlinear effects. We reduce predictors to an optimal set using stepwise regression, resulting in models with validation comparable to a neural network. Models predict 1, 3, 6, 12, and 24 hr into the future. Validation correlations are as high as 0.78 (4.1 and 11 keV, 1 hr prediction) and Heidke Skill scores (HSS) up to 0.66. A 3 hr ahead prediction is more practical, with slightly lower validation correlation (0.75) and HSS (0.61). The addition of location (MLT: magnetic local time) as a covariate, including multiplicative interaction terms, accounts for location‐dependent flux differences and variation of parameter influence, and allows prediction over the full orbit. Adding a substorm index (SME) provides minimal increase in validation correlation (0.81) showing that other parameters are good proxies for an unavailable real time substorm index. Prediction intervals on individual values provide more accurate assessments of model quality than confidence intervals on the mean values. An inverse N‐weighted least squares approach is impractical as it increases false positive warnings. Physical interpretations are not possible as spurious correlations due to common cycles are not removed. However, SME, Bz, Kp, and Dst are the highest correlates of electron flux, with solar wind velocity, density, and pressure, and IMF magnitude being less well correlated. Plain Language Summary: As high levels of electrons in the radiation belts can damage satellites, an accurate forecasting model is needed. Electron levels can be predicted from regression models using data from the solar wind, the interplanetary magnetic field, and indices measuring disturbances in Earth's magnetic field. Dependable predictions can be made using predictors from either an hour or 3 hr before electron changes occur. A 3 hr ahead prediction is more practical, giving time to respond to electron increases, and results in only slightly lower prediction ability. Key Points: Stepwise regression picks parsimonious predictive models of 4.1–30 keV geostationary electron fluxPredictor correlations with 4.1–30 keV flux are lower than those seen with higher energy electronsHowever, reasonably good predictions can be made at geosynchronous orbit over all MLT [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
