| Abstrakt: |
This study focuses on the proliferation of tuberculosis, a contagious condition brought on by Bacillus Mycobacterium, with particular emphasis on its effects on drug-resistant individuals. Tuberculosis treatment is typically 6 to 8 months for newly infected individuals and can extend up to 2.5 years for patients with multi-drug resistance. Despite decades of research, the widespread use of a vaccine, and the seeming WHO attempt to support a single worldwide management approach in recent years, Tuberculosis is the second most common infectious killer, behind covid-19. In 2021, an estimated 10.6 million (9.9-11 million) people latently or actively became ill with TB globally. The dynamics of tuberculosis transmission among the human population are examined using a mathematical model, considering two subgroups: primary infectious individuals and drug-resistant populations. The fundamental reproduction number is obtained, and the model's parameters are subjected to sensitivity analysis to pinpoint the main variables affecting the spread of the disease. The findings of this analysis can aid in proposing effective intervention strategies. The study investigates the TB endemic equilibrium point and evaluates the global and local stability associated with the TB disease-free equilibrium point. Firstly, we examined how the transmission rate affected the model's backward bifurcation. According to our findings, the model experiences a backward bifurcation as the transmission rate rises. Complete eradication of the TB disease becomes unattainable within the range of a scaling factor between 2.53 and 1.73. Secondly, we investigated the effect of the recovery rate among individuals who developed drug resistance on the model's backward bifurcation. Our findings reveal that the model displays a reverse bifurcation as the recovery rate increases. When the transmission rate's scaling factor values shift from 0.5 to 1, the bifurcation changes from forward to backward. Stable disease-free equilibrium (DFE) and global stable endemic equilibria coexist. Based on these observations, we conclude that the drug-resistance compartment is a more significant concern than the infected class, highlighting the need for vigilance among health workers and government agencies in monitoring this silent source of tuberculosis transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
