Quantifying the risk of spillover reduction programs for human health.

Autor: Nuismer, Scott L., Basinski, Andrew J., Schreiner, Courtney L., Eskew, Evan A., Fichet-Calvet, Elisabeth, Remien, Christopher H.
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Zdroj: PLoS Computational Biology; 8/15/2024, Vol. 20 Issue 8, p1-17, 17p
Abstrakt: Reducing spillover of zoonotic pathogens is an appealing approach to preventing human disease and minimizing the risk of future epidemics and pandemics. Although the immediate human health benefit of reducing spillover is clear, over time, spillover reduction could lead to counterintuitive negative consequences for human health. Here, we use mathematical models and computer simulations to explore the conditions under which unanticipated consequences of spillover reduction can occur in systems where the severity of disease increases with age at infection. Our results demonstrate that, because the average age at infection increases as spillover is reduced, programs that reduce spillover can actually increase population-level disease burden if the clinical severity of infection increases sufficiently rapidly with age. If, however, immunity wanes over time and reinfection is possible, our results reveal that negative health impacts of spillover reduction become substantially less likely. When our model is parameterized using published data on Lassa virus in West Africa, it predicts that negative health outcomes are possible, but likely to be restricted to a small subset of populations where spillover is unusually intense. Together, our results suggest that adverse consequences of spillover reduction programs are unlikely but that the public health gains observed immediately after spillover reduction may fade over time as the age structure of immunity gradually re-equilibrates to a reduced force of infection. Author summary: Many pathogens, such as rabies, coronaviruses, and hantaviruses primarily circulate within wild animals but can infect humans when the opportunity arises. This pervasive challenge to public health has motivated the development of new methods designed to reduce the frequency of these spillover events. Although reducing spillover infection of humans appears to be an obvious win for public health, it is conceivable that altering historical patterns of spillover could change the age structure of human immunity in a way that undermines human health. Using mathematical and computational models we evaluate the conditions required for these counterintuitive impacts to occur. Our analyses demonstrate that reducing spillover from wild animals will generally improve public health and that negative outcomes can occur in only rare and unusual circumstances. Although negative impacts of spillover reduction are likely to be rare, our results show that the public health benefits of spillover reduction may fade over time unless a near total elimination of spillover can be achieved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Databáze: Complementary Index
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