| Abstrakt: |
Desertification, a formidable environmental challenge with broad implications for ecosystems and communities, is examined within Jahun Local Government Area in Jigawa State, Nigeria. This study uses a Cellular Automata Markov Chain Analysis model to visualize and predict the associated environmental risks. Objectives include assessing the extent and rate of desertification in the region and forecasting the process until 2080. Utilizing a multidisciplinary approach, the research integrates unsupervised classification of Landsat images, Land Use Land Cover (LUCC) analysis using MODIS data, Maximum Likelihood classification, and cubic trend analysis. The outcomes yield a comprehensive understanding of desertification dynamics in Jahun Local Government Area, identifying susceptible areas for environmental degradation. The study revealed significant changes in various land cover types within the research area. Urban areas experienced a substantial annual increase of 6.3030 km2, suggesting dynamic transformations within urban landscapes, possibly driven by shifts in population density, infrastructure development, or land use patterns. Conversely, vegetation exhibited a higher rate of change, with an annual decrease of 9.3787 km2, indicating variations in vegetative cover. Waterbodies displayed minimal changes, with a slight reduction rate of 0.2723 km²/year. In contrast, bare lands demonstrated a notable increase, expanding at a rate of 15.9541 km²/year, underscoring significant alterations in these regions. The observed variations in rates of change emphasize the dynamic nature of land cover in the study region and underscore the importance of understanding these changes for effective environmental management and policymaking. The study's predictions up to 2080 offers crucial insights for stakeholders and policymakers, facilitating the formulation of proactive monitoring and management strategies to effectively combat desertification and mitigate its adverse effects on ecosystems and livelihoods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
