Factors associated with the spatiotemporal distribution of dog rabies in Tunisia.

Autor: Kalthoum, Sana, Mzoughi, Samia, Gharbi, Raja, Lachtar, Monia, Bel Haj Mohamed, Bassem, Hajlaoui, Haikel, Khalfaoui, Wiem, Dhaouadi, Anissa, Ben Sliman, Imed, Ben Salah, Chafik, Kessa, Haykel, Benkirane, Hend, Fekih, Ahmed Jawher, Barrak, Kahoula, Sayari, Hajer, Bahloul, Chokri, Porphyre, Thibaud
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Zdroj: PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases; 8/5/2024, Vol. 18 Issue 8, p1-19, 19p
Abstrakt: Despite continuous efforts of veterinary services to control rabies in dogs since 1982, rabies remains a cause of death in Tunisia, with more than five reported human cases in 2022. As little is known on the determinants of transmission of rabies in dogs, better understand which factors contribute to its spatial heterogeneity in Tunisia is critical for developing bespoke mitigation activities. In this context, we developed Bayesian Poisson mixed-effect spatio-temporal model upon all cases of rabid dogs reported in each delegation during the period from 2019 to 2021. The best fitting model highlighted the association between the risk of rabies and the mean average monthly temperature, the density of markets and the density of dogs in delegations. Interestingly, no relationship was found between intensity of vaccination in dogs and the risk of rabies. Our results provided insights into the spatio-temporal dynamics of dog rabies transmission and highlighted specific geographic locations where the risk of infection was high despite correction for associated explanatory variables. Such an improved understanding represent key information to design bespoke, cost-efficient, rabies prevention and control strategies to support veterinary services activities and policymaking. Author summary: Rabies, a deadly zoonotic disease, remains a public health concern in Tunisia despite ongoing prevention efforts. Our study, the first of its kind in Tunisia, aimed to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution of dog rabies and identify factors influencing its spread. Using a Bayesian approach, we examined the relationships between epidemiological, socio-economic, and environmental factors and the occurrence of rabies cases in different regions (delegations) of Tunisia. Our study revealed that variations in the risk of rabies were primarily associated with spatial effects rather than temporal trends. We found a negative association between average monthly temperature and dog rabies cases, consistent with decreased viral survival and dog activity in warmer temperatures. The risk of rabies cases had a non-linear relationship with dog density. We also found that dog rabies risk was positively associated with the density of slaughterhouses, indicating that these locations might contribute to interactions between infected and susceptible animals. Surprisingly, vaccination coverage did not show a significant association with rabies risk. Our findings contribute to the global goal of eradicating rabies by 2030 and underscore the importance of adapting strategies based on the unique factors influencing disease transmission in specific regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Databáze: Complementary Index
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