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Introduction The concept of resilience focuses on the ability to survive and grow in changing circumstances. Rice production in Guilan province faces many risks in the production system, product and input markets. During the recent years, the decrease of the runoff from the big Sefidroud basin and water deficit has threatened the sustainability of rice production in this province. In this situation, it is necessary to pay attention to the resilience of paddy farmers and to plan properly to identify and prioritize the drivers affecting it. Various dimensions of resilience, including economic, social, technical and physical, were considered in this study. The objective of this study was to identify different drivers separately for these four dimensions and prioritize them using the opinion of sample experts. Materials and methods The research decision tree was designed with the aim of prioritizing the drivers affecting on the resilience of paddy farmers after summarizing the findings of previous researches and the opinion of sample experts in the form of four criteria and 19 sub-criteria. The research tool was a pairwise comparison questionnaire consisting five comparison groups and 46 pairwise comparisons, which was completed by 10 experts in the field of agricultural resilience in the University of Guilan, Guilan Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center, and Rice Research Institute of Iran. The grey analytic hierarchical process was used to analyze the data related to pairwise comparisons. The algorithm of this process was implemented in eight steps using MATLAB software. The findings of this process were validated based on the incompatibility index value less than 10%. Research findings The results of this study showed that the economic criterion with a relative weight of 60.30% was the most important driver of paddy farmer’s resilience among the all criteria of the decision tree. Technical, social, and physical criteria with the relative weights of 20.71%, 12.44%, and 6.55%, respectively, were placed in the second to fourth ranks, respectively. The economic sub-criteria, including the assets of the paddy farmer family, income and assets of the paddy farm, were assigned the importance of the first to third priorities, respectively. The final weights related to the three mentioned sub-criteria were 19.43%, 17.19% and 12.15%, respectively, which indicates the high priority of economic drivers in the resilience of paddy farmers. The results of the distance of standard deviation from mean showed that the above mentioned three economic sub-criteria had a very high impact on resilience. Also, the economic sub-criteria of financial affairs and budget and subsidies along with the technical sub-criteria of access to inputs are introduced as drivers with high impact intensity on the resilience of paddy farmers. Conclusion The findings of the research indicated the high importance of economic criterion and sub-criteria on the resilience of paddy farmers in Guilan province. Therefore, attention to these drivers and proper planning to improve them should be on the agenda of provincial managers. Adopting the strategy of diversifying farmer’s income sources by using the development of tourism and rural handicrafts and focusing on the creation of workshop-service areas in rural regions will be a way forward in this regard. Also, planning to improve the financial capital and assets of paddy farmers as the most important driver of resilience should be considered. The technical criterion is also very important in the resilience of rice farmers. Therefore, it is necessary to improve the access of rice farmers to inputs and promote the use of modified and resistant seeds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
