Ozone Pollution in China Affected by Climate Change in a Carbon Neutral Future as Predicted by a Process‐Based Interpretable Machine Learning Method.

Autor: Li, Huimin, Yang, Yang, Su, Hang, Wang, Hailong, Wang, Pinya, Liao, Hong
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Zdroj: Geophysical Research Letters; 7/16/2024, Vol. 51 Issue 13, p1-11, 11p
Abstrakt: Ozone (O3) pollution is a severe air quality issue in China, posing a threat to human health and ecosystems. The climate change will affect O3 levels by directly changing physical and chemical processes of O3 and indirectly changing natural emissions of O3 precursors. In this study, near‐surface O3 concentrations in China in 2030 and 2060 are predicted using the process‐based interpretable Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model integrated with multi‐source data. The results show that the climate‐driven O3 levels over eastern China are projected to decrease by more than 0.4 ppb in 2060 under the carbon neutral scenario (SSP1‐1.9) compared with the high emission scenario (SSP5‐8.5). Among this reduction, 80% is attributed to the changes in physical and chemical processes of O3 related to a cooler climate, while the remaining 20% is attributed to the reduced biogenic isoprene emissions. Plain Language Summary: O3 pollution is a severe air quality issue in China that threatens human health and ecosystem. Under the background of climate change, O3 pollution will continue to evolve in the future. Here, we predict near‐surface O3 concentrations in China in 2030 and 2060 based on an interpretable machine learning method, integrated with physical and chemical processes of O3, natural emissions of O3 precursors, and other multi‐source data. The direct (via changing physical and chemical processes of O3) and indirect (via changing natural emissions of O3 precursors) impacts of future climate change on O3 concentrations are quantitatively analyzed. It demonstrates that the climate‐driven O3 levels are projected to decrease by more than 0.4 ppb in 2060 over eastern China under a carbon neutral scenario relative to a high emission scenario. The changes in physical and chemical processes under climate change play a more important role in regulating O3 concentrations in the future than the changes in natural emissions. Key Points: Climate change influences O3 pollution in China through changing physical and chemical processes and natural precursor emissions of O3Physical and chemical processes play a dominant role in regulating future near‐surface O3 concentrations over eastern ChinaCarbon neutral scenario is an ideal pathway for China to mitigate both climate change and O3 pollution in 2060 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Databáze: Complementary Index
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