| Autor: |
Adams, Kirsten, Ling, Fiona, Blundy, Sarah, Wright, Michael, Graham, Bryce |
| Předmět: |
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| Zdroj: |
EA National Conference Publications; 2023, p550-560, 11p |
| Abstrakt: |
Water allocation and management in Tasmania is currently informed by future climate outputs from the Tasmania Sustainable Yields (TasSY) project, completed in 2009. As TasSY is based on climate science that is almost 15 years old and projections are indicative of a 2030 climate, future water related climate risks may be more significant than NRE Tas's current catchment modelling indicates. The Catchment Yield Science Update Project Phase 1 was designed to provide NRE Tas with a preferred pathway to accessing and using contemporary climate projections datasets to provide updated yield estimates to underpin the State's water allocation process. Projections data from the latest IPCC report (AR6) are not yet readily available over Tasmania at a resolution suitable for catchment modelling. To determine if using one of the currently available AR5 datasets is prudent as an interim step, whilst AR6 results are analysed, a pilot project was carried out using six catchments. The catchments were chosen to represent different climates and regions of the state. Datasets from three completed climate projection projects, with a focus on Tasmania, were used as inputs to the catchment models to assess implications of newer climate projection information in the test catchments. Changes in key statistics for water management, between the baseline scenario and future time slices were examined. Comparisons between the statistics derived using these datasets and TasSY allowed consideration of any benefits in updating to one of these datasets, compared with remaining with TasSY outputs until AR6 results are available. The pilot catchment modelling demonstrated that the existing approach, based on TasSY data, provides results for key indices that largely fall within the range of projections seen from the other three projects at a 2030 and 2050 time slice. This provides reassurance that the current yield data used for water allocation will remain relevant whilst AR6 model results are downscaled and bias corrected for Tasmania. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Databáze: |
Complementary Index |
| Externí odkaz: |
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