| Autor: |
Kayastha, Miraj B., Huang, Chenfu, Wang, Jiali, Qian, Yun, Yang, Zhao, Chakraborty, TC, Pringle, William J., Hetland, Robert D., Xue, Pengfei |
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| Zdroj: |
Earth's Future; Jun2024, Vol. 12 Issue 6, p1-22, 22p |
| Abstrakt: |
Lake‐effect snow (LES) storms, characterized by heavy convective precipitation downwind of large lakes, pose significant coastal hazards with severe socioeconomic consequences in vulnerable areas. In this study, we investigate how devastating LES storms could evolve in the future by employing a storyline approach, using the LES storm that occurred over Buffalo, New York, in November 2022 as an example. Using a Pseudo‐Global Warming method with a fully three‐dimensional two‐way coupled lake‐land‐atmosphere modeling system at a cloud‐resolving 4 km resolution, we show a 14% increase in storm precipitation under the end‐century warming. This increase in precipitation is accompanied by a transition in the precipitation form from predominantly snowfall to nearly equal parts snowfall and rainfall. Through additional simulations with isolated atmospheric and lake warming, we discerned that the warmer lake contributes to increased storm precipitation through enhanced evaporation while the warmer atmosphere contributes to the increase in the storm's rainfall, at the expense of snowfall. More importantly, this shift from snowfall to rainfall was found to nearly double the area experiencing another winter hazard, Rain‐on‐Snow. Our study provides a plausible future storyline for the Buffalo LES storm, focusing on understanding the intricate interplay between atmospheric and lake warming in shaping the future dynamics of LES storms. It emphasizes the importance of accurately capturing the changing lake‐atmosphere dynamics during LES storms under future warming. Plain Language Summary: A lake‐effect snow (LES) storm is a heavy snowfall that occurs when a cold dry air mass travels over a relatively warm lake. LES storms have been particularly known to decimate regions downwind of the North American Great Lakes with several meters of snow and millions of dollars in damages. In this study, we use a fully 3D comprehensive lake‐land‐atmosphere modeling system, along with the Pseudo‐Global Warming technique that incorporates large‐scale climate changes into our simulation, to investigate how such devastating LES storms could unfold in a warming climate. We used the LES storm that hit Buffalo, New York in November 2022 as a case study. Our results revealed that under a warmer future climate, LES storms can produce a higher precipitation amount by up to 14%. More notably, our results showed a transition in the form of storm precipitation from mostly snowfall to nearly equal parts snowfall and rainfall. The warmer lake in the future was found to be the primary reason behind the increase in precipitation through enhanced evaporation from the lake. The warmer atmosphere in the future explained why rainfall replaced snowfall in the LES storm. Key Points: Future of lake‐effect snow storms is explored using Pseudo‐Global Warming with a 3D two‐way coupled lake‐land‐atmosphere modeling systemFuture climate amplifies storm precipitation via higher lake evaporation and boosts rainfall at snowfall's expense via a warmer atmosphereLake evaporation plays a critical role in storm precipitation amount and accurately resolving the future lake‐atmosphere dynamics is vital [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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