| Autor: |
Ssembatya, Henry, Kern, Jordan D., Oikonomou, Konstantinos, Voisin, Nathalie, Burleyson, Casey D., Akdemir, Kerem Ziya |
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| Zdroj: |
Earth's Future; Jun2024, Vol. 12 Issue 6, p1-17, 17p |
| Abstrakt: |
Around 60% of households in Texas currently rely on electricity for space heating. As decarbonization efforts increase, non‐electrified households could adopt electric heat pumps, significantly increasing peak (highest) electricity demand in winter. Simultaneously, anthropogenic climate change is expected to increase temperatures, the potential for summer heat waves, and associated electricity demand for cooling. Uncertainty regarding the timing and magnitude of these concurrent changes raises questions about how they will jointly affect the seasonality of peak demand, firm capacity requirements, and grid reliability. This study investigates the net effects of residential space heating electrification and climate change on long‐term demand patterns and load shedding potential, using climate change projections, a predictive load model, and a direct current optimal power flow (DCOPF) model of the Texas grid. Results show that full electrification of residential space heating by replacing existing fossil fuel use with higher efficiency heat pumps could significantly improve reliability under hotter futures. Less efficient heat pumps may result in more severe winter peaking events and increased reliability risks. As heating electrification intensifies, system planners will need to balance the potential for greater resource adequacy risk caused by shifts in seasonal peaking behavior alongside the benefits (improved efficiency and reductions in emissions). Plain Language Summary: Electric heat pump adoption could help abate the impacts of climate change on overall power system reliability by reducing summer cooling demand in a warmer world because heat pumps are a more efficient alternative to standard air conditioning. It would also carry greenhouse gas emissions benefits in a decarbonized power grid. Yet widespread adoption of heat pumps (especially low‐efficiency heat pumps) could cause more extreme winter peaking events. During these extreme cold events, higher peak demand could result in an increased probability of outages. Higher efficiency heat pumps would help avoid these winter reliability impacts, but these more efficient heat pumps are also currently more expensive. From a grid planning perspective, planners need to account for a range of future peak demand dynamics across different heat pump adoption scenarios and climate futures. Key Points: Widespread electric heat pump adoption and climate change will increase uncertainty in seasonal peaking patterns and grid reliabilityFuture peaking behavior depends on the frequency and severity of extreme heat and cold events and the type of heat pumps widely adoptedShifts toward winter peaking could carry large resource adequacy risks, depending on pump efficiency and climate scenario [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Databáze: |
Complementary Index |
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