| Autor: |
Mao-Kang Su, Keh-Hsun Chen, Huan-Chen Wang |
| Předmět: |
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| Zdroj: |
System Dynamics Review (Wiley); Fall1992, Vol. 8 Issue 3, p213-232, 20p, 5 Diagrams, 1 Chart, 12 Graphs |
| Abstrakt: |
This article examines a general infectious disease model and proposes a new epidemic threshold and an epidemic scale forecasting formula. Then a system dynamics model of an eruptive spread of type-A hepatitis in Shanghai in 1988 is presented. Various problems are resolved: simulating the incubation period of type-A hepatitis; fitting the simulation results to real data; analyzing the reason that the predicted second peak of the eruptive spread did not occur. Short-and long-term prospects for recurrence are considered, especially the mechanisms of periodic epidemics and eruptive spreads of type-A hepatitis. The results of this study have import for the prevention and control of type-A hepatitis and other infectious diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Databáze: |
Complementary Index |
| Externí odkaz: |
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