A physiologically-based digital twin for alcohol consumption—predicting real-life drinking responses and long-term plasma PEth.

Autor: Podéus, Henrik, Simonsson, Christian, Nasr, Patrik, Ekstedt, Mattias, Kechagias, Stergios, Lundberg, Peter, Lövfors, William, Cedersund, Gunnar
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Zdroj: NPJ Digital Medicine; 5/3/2024, Vol. 7 Issue 1, p1-18, 18p
Abstrakt: Alcohol consumption is associated with a wide variety of preventable health complications and is a major risk factor for all-cause mortality in the age group 15-47 years. To reduce dangerous drinking behavior, eHealth applications have shown promise. A particularly interesting potential lies in the combination of eHealth apps with mathematical models. However, existing mathematical models do not consider real-life situations, such as combined intake of meals and beverages, and do not connect drinking to clinical markers, such as phosphatidylethanol (PEth). Herein, we present such a model which can simulate real-life situations and connect drinking to long-term markers. The new model can accurately describe both estimation data according to a χ2 -test (187.0 < Tχ2 = 226.4) and independent validation data (70.8 < Tχ2 = 93.5). The model can also be personalized using anthropometric data from a specific individual and can thus be used as a physiologically-based digital twin. This twin is also able to connect short-term consumption of alcohol to the long-term dynamics of PEth levels in the blood, a clinical biomarker of alcohol consumption. Here we illustrate how connecting short-term consumption to long-term markers allows for a new way to determine patient alcohol consumption from measured PEth levels. An additional use case of the twin could include the combined evaluation of patient-reported AUDIT forms and measured PEth levels. Finally, we integrated the new model into an eHealth application, which could help guide individual users or clinicians to help reduce dangerous drinking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Databáze: Complementary Index