Influenza pandemics and macroeconomic fluctuations 1871–2016.

Autor:	Summerfield, Fraser, Di Matteo, Livio
Předmět:	PANDEMICS INFLUENZA pandemic 1918-1919 INFLUENZA BUSINESS cycles BLACK Death pandemic 1348-1351
Zdroj:	Cliometrica; May2024, Vol. 18 Issue 2, p405-451, 47p
Abstrakt:	This paper documents the short-run macroeconomic impacts of influenza pandemics across 16 countries spanning 1871–2016 using the Jordà–Schularick–Taylor Macrohistory Database and the Human Mortality Database. We find pandemic-induced mortality contributed meaningfully to business cycle fluctuations in the post 1870 era. We identify negative causal impacts on the cyclical component of GDP using pandemics to instrument for working-age mortality. The analysis of short-run economic outcomes extends literature dominated by long-run economic growth outcomes and case studies of several specific health shocks such as the Black Death, Spanish Flu or COVID-19. Our findings illustrate that less catastrophic pandemics still have important economic implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Databáze:	Complementary Index
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