| Abstrakt: |
Purpose: Globalisation, energy issues and transport costs are at the forefront of the strategic concerns of the scientific and business communities. Presenting itself as one of the strategic variables of business competitiveness, it justifies the objective of this study, which focuses on evaluating the impact of fuel price fluctuations on the performance of companies operating in Portugal in the transport sector. Geographic, technological aspects, legal framework, infrastructure, and fuel costs are decisive in facilitating international trade and can have a relevant impact on the competitiveness of companies (Alberto Behar & Anthony J. Venables, 2011). Portugal, due to its geographical location and energy dependence, which are mainly associated with transport, justifies special attention to fuel costs for companies in the transport sector. The aim is to answer the question underlying the concerns of both the scientific and business communities: Are fuel prices compromising the economic structure of transport companies? In accessory terms, two questions remain: What is the economic-financial structure of Portuguese transport companies and their recent evolution? Is there any notable economic impact on transport companies due to fluctuations in fuel prices? Involving an empirical study based on a sample of companies in the transport sector operating in Portugal, it seeks to answer the questions raised, contributing to clarifying not only the relative importance of these variables but also the methodology for approaching this problem. Financial information and its disclosure are increasingly crucial for managing companies that face the structural issue of the growing turbulence observed in their surroundings. This situation requires better and faster decision-making capacity, which can only be achieved with more and better information. Methodology: This study involves a sample of one hundred companies representing the transport sector operating in Portugal, segmented into land (NACE49), maritime (NACE50) and air (NACE 51) transport companies. Financial and non-financial information obtained from the Bureau van Dijk's SABI database was used for the time range from 2016 to 2020. Toads, the selected companies are subject to legal audit. The information processing was based on the ratio method for analyzing the economicfinancial structure of companies and the Pearson coefficient for analyzing the impact of fuel prices on that structure. Thus, applying the model/process proposed by Breia, Mata, and Pereira (2014) and some of the conventional methods of analyzing Financial Statements, as well as insolvency risk assessment methodologies, the economic-financial situation of companies was assessed and the impact of the price of the fuel on the three types of transport. Results: Regarding the economic and financial analysis, the results can be organized into six blocks: liquidity, sustainability, profitability, risk, cost structure and bankruptcy risk. Finally, correlation analysis concludes the impact of fuel price fluctuations on the sector. Regarding liquidity, companies can resolve immediate responsibilities. As for companies in the airline subsector, if we include the value of stocks, this capacity needs to be improved. Land transport companies show a level of sustainability corresponding to a good level of independence from creditors, showing themselves more conservative concerning debt than the sector average. Maritime transport companies also offer good levels of capital strength, representing a low level of risk for creditors. On the other hand, air transport companies show a greater vulnerability vis-à-vis their creditors. In the three subgroups, it is noted that a financing structure with a relative weight of short-term debt above that recommended creates pressure on the treasury. Showing uninteresting levels of asset profitability, land transport companies are exposed to interest rate risk, which can lead to the erosion of their capital. Although higher, maritime transport companies' business profitability is also low. Air transport companies show results below the sector average, revealing, in many cases, negative values for profitability. The sector can be classified as capital intensive, showing the respective companies, on average, a low level of asset use, contributing to the situation described. As for risk, at an operational level, the values revealed are high, except for maritime transport companies. Financial risk is also high for land and air transport companies, which results in a combined risk level well above the industry average. The cost structure of companies in the sector involves significant fixed costs, contributing to a high critical point. Air transport companies show an organization that reveals weaker cost control. Regarding the risk of bankruptcy, throughout the period, there was a general increase in the indicator in the subsector of land transport companies, a trend already observed in previous years. Although NACE 50 companies (maritime transport companies) show fluctuations in the indicator, they have a predominance of low bankruptcy risk classification. In contrast, air transport companies have a high bankruptcy risk classification in more than 50% of cases. Not that it concerns the impact of changes in the price of fuel on the cost structure of companies and, consequently, on their competitiveness, different situations are observed for the various subsectors. The companies in NACE 49 reveal a moderatestrong correlation; that is, the variation in fuel prices impacts the cost structure, albeit relatively intensely, but may compromise their competitiveness in the face of weak profitability. NACE 50 companies reveal a strong dependence on fuel prices, which is expressed in the very high correlation between this variable and the companies' economic-financial indicators, meaning significant impacts on these companies resulting from increases in fuel prices. Finally, the subsector corresponding to air transport companies reveals a low correlation between the fuel price and its insignificant economic-financial indicators. We cannot conclude a clear cause-effect relationship. It is considered that, with the results obtained from the empirical study, the questions raised were clarified. In general, transport companies in Portugal must improve their financing structure, profitability, and bankruptcy risk despite maintaining good immediate liquidity. Among the companies in the sector, those in the maritime transport subsector show better economic and financial indicators in general, while those in air transport show the most worrying indicators. The economic situation of transport companies in Portugal is generally weak and compromised by high fuel costs. This conclusion cannot be validated for air transport companies, which, paradoxically, are the most vulnerable in economic and financial terms. Except for air transport companies, where it was not possible to conclude the impact of fuel prices on their economic structure, in all others, the existence of a negative effect is confirmed, and in the case of maritime transport companies, this impact is powerful. Originality: The study reveals its originality in both theoretical and empirical terms. On a theoretical level, it corresponds to the state of the art of a topic that is highly relevant to the transport sector in Portugal, and few approaches with a scientific perspective have been adopted here. On an empirical level, it contributes to knowledge of the financial profile and risk of bankruptcy of companies in the sector, according to the various sub-sectors, providing relevant information on this topic for academics and managers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
