| Autor: |
Sami, Saja Sameer, Ali, Ammar Adham, Jalal, Arkan Dhari |
| Předmět: |
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| Zdroj: |
AIP Conference Proceedings; 2024, Vol. 3009 Issue 1, p1-9, 9p |
| Abstrakt: |
Hundreds of people around the world have been affected by the global phenomenon of climate change, which has become in the current century one of the most important environmental issues, especially in arid semi-arid regions (ASARs). Global and regional water resource systems will be significantly affected by climate change. In the proposed study area, the main objective is to predict precipitation amounts on the Iraqi desert's western reaches (Wadi Houran) in the future. Climate change data were downscaled using the statistical downscaling model (SDSM 4.2). In this study two types of rain data were applied; first; daily field data were obtained from the Iraqi meteorological and seismic monitoring station (Al-Rutba station) for 30 years (1990_ 2020). The second type of data obtained from the Canadian Earth Model of the second generation (CanEsM2). The data for the NCEP were obtained from the Canadian Climate Data and Scenarios This is only one program that provides daily forecast variables applied straight to the SDSM program. It was developed by the Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis (CCCMA) of the Canadian Ministry of Environment. It was prepared for CMIP5 primarily as a contribution to the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (AR5) where the outputs of (Can ESm2) are downloaded for three climate scenarios (RCP2.5, RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5). Future years for forecasting rain from (2011-2100). For the period where the model was calibrated from (1961-2005) and validated (1991 - 2005). After model calibration and SDSM performance validation, future precipitation simulations were performed separately for all three RCP scenarios. In addition, the baseline of future precipitation data from (2011_2100) was compared with the baseline precipitation index from (1990_2020) and it was found that in the RCP 2.6 scenario there is a decrease in precipitation (35%) in the 1980s (2071 _ 2100) and in the RCP 4.5 scenario, where rain was (35%) in the forties (2041- 2070), and a significant decrease in rain In the RCP 8.5 scenario this was observed, It was observed that in the scenario of RCP 8.5, the strongest decrease in rainfall occurs in the future years in the eighties from (2071-2100) by 37%. Where it leads to an increase in desertification and because of the lack of rainfall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Databáze: |
Complementary Index |
| Externí odkaz: |
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