| Abstrakt: |
Climate change strains human and natural system sustainability worldwide. Plum Island Estuary, Massachusetts (PIE MA) salt marshes are socio-environmental ecosystems experiencing two such climate stressors: sea level rise (SLR) and the mud fiddler crab Minuca pugnax (= Uca pugnax Smith) range expansion. Salt marshes are important sources of ecosystem functioning and ecosystem services. Uncertainties remain, however, whether SLR and the fiddler crab range expansion will affect PIE ecosystem functioning and services over time by changing marsh area. We, therefore, determined in this study: (1) to what degree PIE marshes provide residents with cultural ecosystem services (e.g., recreation); (2) whether SLR and the fiddler crab range expansion influence marsh area; and (3) whether policy measures influence the direction of marsh services in the face of SLR and multiple potential impacts of range expanding fiddler crabs. We developed a system dynamics model, parameterized with data from stakeholder surveys, the IPCC Report, and a literature review. We modeled low, moderate, and high SLR both with fiddler crabs enhancing marsh erosion and growth, and with and without mitigation strategies on marsh area and recreation. The multi-stressor effects of fiddler crab erosion enhancement and high SLR rates decreased marsh area by 2250. Future losses to marsh area caused declines in recreational days. Policy interventions (e.g., erosion reduction and tidal flood mitigation) largely mitigated these losses. Fiddler crab marsh growth by itself also strongly mitigated the effects of SLR. These results provide critical transdisciplinary insight for residents, scientists, and practitioners working to enhance PIE sustainability, and for researchers studying how to support environmental sustainability at scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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