| Abstrakt: |
The main aim of this study is to develop a new model using the Gaussian distribution in global solar radiation estimation. In this study, a new global solar radiation (SR) model was developed using the Matlab program, and the performance of this developed model was examined in different regions. With this newly developed model, the estimated values were compared with the actual measured values in the determined regions. When the literature is examined, it is seen that although many different methods and approaches have been used in SR estimation, no model has been developed with the Gaussian distribution. Thus, the performance of this new developed model was observed in detail in different regions. The performance of the developed model was examined in six different statistical error tests. The developed new model was compared with twenty different models. Global SR data used in this study were obtained from the Turkish State Meteorological Service. When the results are evaluated in general, it has been observed that the Gaussian model exhibited the best performance with RPE = 0.3574, MPE = 0.7794, R2 = 0.9848, MAPE = 6.7525, SSRE = 0.0997, and t-stat = 0.1913 resulting in the amongst all the models which were compared. In addition to these results, it was observed that the performance of the new model developed gave acceptable results in different regions. The findings of this study are expected to make significant contributions to the growing literature on advancing forecasting model development efforts to predict solar energy production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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