| Abstrakt: |
Climate change research on fisheries is often focused on changes in species abundance and distribution, yet the impacts of severe weather events are also important. Climate models indicate that storm frequency and intensity may increase in the North Atlantic; however, uncertainties remain and consequences in Iceland are not well studied. This research represents a first attempt to understand local to regional implications of storminess on Icelandic fisheries industries. Using an interdisciplinary approach, the analysis (1) provides regional future wind speed projections in Iceland and surroundings under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 3–7.0 scenario, (2) documents current local experiences using exploratory interviews with various stakeholders in fisheries and aquaculture, and (3) explores research priorities for understanding climate-change adaptations in coastal communities. Projections show that whereas areas of the west, south, and east of Iceland may experience fewer storm days, the region north/northeast of Iceland features an increase in storm days. Potential adaptations include a flexible management system that does not punish fishers for lost time due to bad weather, cooperative market arrangements among sectors, and job security considerations for fishers and fish processing workers. Future projections are needed for other variables such as precipitation, and future socioeconomic studies should address the predictions and impacts of storminess. Using a state-of-the-art climate model, this study suggests that wind speed will increase north of Iceland, whereas the south will be calmer in the future under the SSP3–7.0 emission scenario. Impacts of storm events on fisheries including infrastructure damage, personal safety, land-based transportation disruptions, or temporary income losses can have disproportionate impacts on small-scale operations and rural communities. Future climate model research should focus on assessing changes in the most extreme storms, wind direction, and precipitation over land, as well as evaluating the robustness of results across different climate models. Future socioeconomic adaptation research should focus on the combined impacts of fish stock movements and changing weather conditions, and regional variations across Iceland as some areas are projected to be calmer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
