| Abstrakt: |
One of the world's most challenging problems is climate change, which threatens many aspects of the social-ecological landscape of nature and human systems, particularly in the Horn of Africa. The study focuses on the spatiotemporal distribution of climate extremes indices under projected future climatic conditions over the Lake Tana sub-basin. Daily-time series in three socioeconomic pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) for the near, mid, and far future periods and CMIP6 models were chosen as the best-fit models. Additionally, the climate variability of the basin is represented by eleven climate extreme indicators. The result indicates that model MPI-ESM1-2-HR gives reasonable performance for precipitation which is 0.76 coefficient of determination (R2) and 0.75 for Nash and Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and for maximum temperature 0.76 for R2, 0.75 for (NSE) and minimum temperature 0.65 for R2, 0.64 for NSE. Scenario SSP5-8.5 in the far future period will experience the highest warm period TXx and TXn around 33–32 °C and 21–20 °C, respectively, at stations Zegie, Addis Zemen, and Maksegnt. The coldest extremes TNn discovered at station Dangla throughout the near timeframe under the SSP2-4.5 scenario were between 5.9 and 6.7 °C. Heavy rainfall (R10) occurred in the top section of the subbasin for 26–27 days in Scenario SPP1-2.6, but exceptionally heavy rainfall (R20) was discovered in a far future period on average for 0.83–0.94 days in Scenario SSP5-8.5. The highest Rsum found was 1100–1000 mm rainfall at SSP1-2.6 at station Maksegnt in the same period. In a scenario of SSP5-8.5, dry CDD occurred at station Debretabor during a mid-future period for an average of 130–120 days. CWD was discovered during the mid-period of SSP2-4.5 in the upper portion of the basin at Maksegnt and Addis Zemen stations for an average of 120–130 days. In general, it is crucial for the stakeholders to be aware of the facts to develop and plan future activities on the basin that are related to the climate, health, and other extremes for alerting future adaptation and mitigation planning techniques to battle the effects of excessive heating in the sub-basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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