| Autor: |
Juszczyk, Michał, Hanák, Tomáš, Výskala, Miloslav, Pacyno, Hanna, Siejda, Michał |
| Předmět: |
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| Zdroj: |
Applied Sciences (2076-3417); Dec2023, Vol. 13 Issue 23, p12744, 24p |
| Abstrakt: |
Featured Application: The potential applications of the research results, particularly the models utilizing ensembles of neural networks, offer the feasibility of early cost estimates for sewerage projects. The cost estimates of construction works, derived from the developed models, can be generated based on the essential features of sewerage projects that are accessible for analysis prior to the commencement of detailed design. This paper presents research results on the development of an original cost prediction model for construction costs in sewerage projects. The focus is placed on fast cost estimates applicable in the early stages of a project, based on fundamental information available during the initial design phase of sanitary sewers prior to the detailed design. The originality and novelty of this research lie in the application of artificial neural network ensembles, which include a combination of several individual neural networks and the use of simple averaging and generalized averaging approaches. The research resulted in the development of two ensemble-based models, including five neural networks that were trained and tested using data collected from 125 sewerage projects completed in the Czech Republic between 2018 and 2022. The data included information relevant to various aspects of projects and contract costs, updated to account for changes in costs over time. The developed models present satisfactory predictive performance, especially the ensemble model based on simple averaging, which offers prediction accuracy within the range of ±30% (in terms of percentage errors) for over 90% of the training and testing samples. The developed models, based on the ensembles of neural networks, outperformed the benchmark model based on the classical approach and the use of multiple linear regression. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Databáze: |
Complementary Index |
| Externí odkaz: |
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