| Abstrakt: |
This intrinsic case study was conducted to investigate 5-years-old children's thoughts about probability. In this context, children's predictions about probabilistic trials, their choices on probabilistic trials, inferences about the consequences of probabilistic trials, reasonings about complementary events, considerations on the recurrence of trials, and mathematical appropriateness of children's responses were detailly investigated. Twenty-four children (63- to 70-month-olds) participated in this study. A progressive game played with the help of wheel mechanisms, a short story about probabilistic situations, and a set having interview-based procedures (Probabilistic Trials for Five-Year-Old Children) were used as data collection tools. Summative content analysis was used to analyze the data. Children's thoughts about probability were categorized under different categories. Coefficient of interrater reliability was found to be as .87 according to Miles and Huberman's formula. The results of this study show us that 5-year-old children have mathematically appropriate understandings about uncertain events, probable events, other possible factors affecting probability, and quantifying probability. Besides, the children who participated in the study were having some misconceptions on probability, such as focusing on the consequences of events, "Emotional decision-making," "Assuming previously observed outcome will repeat," and "Assuming increased probability as certain event." As another result, most of their inferences about probabilistic situations were not consistent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
