| Abstrakt: |
Key Points: Question: Did the Million Hearts Model, which encouraged and paid for cardiovascular risk assessment and reduction, reduce the incidence of first-time myocardial infarctions and strokes or Medicare spending among Medicare beneficiaries aged 40 to 79 years? Findings: The model reduced the probability of a first-time myocardial infarction or stroke over 5 years by 0.3 percentage points among people at high or medium risk for these events, without statistically significant changes in Medicare spending. Meaning: The commitment of health care organizations to cardiovascular risk assessment and follow-up, coupled with payments for risk assessment and reduction, reduced myocardial infarction and stroke rates. Results support guideline recommendations for cardiovascular risk assessment. Importance: The Million Hearts Model paid health care organizations to assess and reduce cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Model effects on long-term outcomes are unknown. Objective: To estimate model effects on first-time myocardial infarctions (MIs) and strokes and Medicare spending over a period up to 5 years. Design, Setting, and Participants: This pragmatic cluster-randomized trial ran from 2017 to 2021, with organizations assigned to a model intervention group or standard care control group. Randomized organizations included 516 US-based primary care and specialty practices, health centers, and hospital-based outpatient clinics participating voluntarily. Of these organizations, 342 entered patients into the study population, which included Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries aged 40 to 79 years with no previous MI or stroke and with high or medium CVD risk (a 10-year predicted probability of MI or stroke [ie, CVD risk score] ≥15%) in 2017-2018. Intervention: Organizations agreed to perform guideline-concordant care, including routine CVD risk assessment and cardiovascular care management for high-risk patients. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services paid organizations to calculate CVD risk scores for Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries. CMS further rewarded organizations for reducing risk among high-risk beneficiaries (CVD risk score ≥30%). Main Outcomes and Measures: Outcomes included first-time CVD events (MIs, strokes, and transient ischemic attacks) identified in Medicare claims, combined first-time CVD events from claims and CVD deaths (coronary heart disease or cerebrovascular disease deaths) identified using the National Death Index, and Medicare Parts A and B spending for CVD events and overall. Outcomes were measured through 2021. Results: High- and medium-risk model intervention beneficiaries (n = 130 578) and standard care control beneficiaries (n = 88 286) were similar in age (median age, 72-73 y), sex (58%-59% men), race (7%-8% Black), and baseline CVD risk score (median, 24%). The probability of a first-time CVD event within 5 years was 0.3 percentage points lower for intervention beneficiaries than control beneficiaries (3.3% relative effect; adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 0.97 [90% CI, 0.93-1.00]; P =.09). The 5-year probability of combined first-time CVD events and CVD deaths was 0.4 percentage points lower in the intervention group (4.2% relative effect; HR, 0.96 [90% CI, 0.93-0.99]; P =.02). Medicare spending for CVD events was similar between the groups (effect estimate, −$1.83 per beneficiary per month [90% CI, −$3.97 to −$0.30]; P =.16), as was overall Medicare spending including model payments (effect estimate, $2.11 per beneficiary per month [90% CI, −$16.66 to $20.89]; P =.85). Conclusions and Relevance: The Million Hearts Model, which encouraged and paid for CVD risk assessment and reduction, reduced first-time MIs and strokes. Results support guidelines to use risk scores for CVD primary prevention. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04047147 This cluster-randomized clinical trial examines the effects of the Million Hearts Model on first-time myocardial infarctions and strokes and Medicare spending over a period up to 5 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
