| Autor: |
Akkor, Deniz Güney, Özden, Halit Ünal |
| Předmět: |
|
| Zdroj: |
EGUsphere; 9/15/2023, p1-20, 20p |
| Abstrakt: |
This study employs Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to estimate the probability of geomagnetic storms of comparable magnitude to the March 1989 event and to assess the implications of such storms for the insurance industry. To calculate return periods for extreme events, historical Dst data from the World Data Centre for Geomagnetism are combined with the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution, maximum likelihood estimation, and the Peaks Over Threshold (POT) approach. The findings suggest that there is a 7.14 % to 8.33 % chance of a geomagnetic storm of equivalent severity occurring during the next 70 years (with a 95 % confidence interval). This study helps us understand the frequency and severity of extreme geomagnetic storms and helps the insurance industry make judgments about risk management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Databáze: |
Complementary Index |
| Externí odkaz: |
|
