| Abstrakt: |
We have studied the thermodynamic stability indices and their effectiveness in predicting premonsoon thunderstorms for different cities all over India. For that purpose, we have studied 10 thermodynamic stability indices for 24 cities all over India. We have analyzed the upper air radiosonde data at 00 UTC during the premonsoon season of 2016-2018. The mean, standard deviation, and range of variation of the indices have been obtained separately for thundery and nonthundery days. For each of the indices, we have determined the optimum threshold values that give the best prediction skill for each location. Further, we have identified a list of suitable indices that are more effective in predicting thunderstorms for each location. Finally, we have proposed a scheme for premonsoon binary thunderstorm prediction, i.e., whether thunderstorms will occur or not at a particular place, on the basis of optimum consensus among the suitable indices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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