| Abstrakt: |
The article focuses on cohort fertility versus parity progression as methods of projecting births. The failure of demographers to anticipate the changing levels of the number of births--first that of the great postwar baby boom, and second that of moderate drop since 1961--has encouraged more intensive research into the factors that determine fertility and into the methods employed for projecting births. Partly, the investigation has been of the underlying economic and social factors that determine fertility but partly, too, of the mechanical, demographic determinants. That the recent fall in births may be caused entirely by demographic factors is suggested by the fact that the national sample surveys show no fall in the size of families that women expect to have. The U.S. Bureau of the Census, because of its role as the principal source of population projections in the Federal government, is one of the agencies seeking improved methods for projecting births. In its latest set of projections, published in July 1964, the Bureau has used the cohort fertility method to develop the assumptions respecting fertility. |
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