| Abstrakt: |
It seems well to describe the secular trend in terms of the types of data available on an annual basis. 1. The volume of total births, relatively stable from World War I to the depression, has risen about 65 per cent. 2. The volume of births to women of each age was stable for women aged 15-34 before the depression, but declining for older women, has since risen for women of all ages at roughly similar rates. 3. Before the depression, the volume of first and second births was fairly constant; for higher birth orders the declines were roughly proportional to the birth order. Since the depression, the volume of births has increased at rates inversely proportional to the birth order for births under the fifth, but decreased at rates directly proportional to the birth order for higher-order births. The volume of first-borns fluctuates with the volume of marriages, and both have apparently declined, after slight gains in 1950-1. In turn, the simple rates have favored trends as follows: 1. The crude birth rate, declining before 1933, has risen to attain apparent stability at 1925 levels. 2. The age-specific rates, declining for women of all ages before 1933, have since risen, notably for women aged 20-29, less so for women 30-34, and in the gains have fluctuated widely: For women over 35, rates have stabilized since 1933. 3. Rates for all birth orders were declining before the depression, the decline being inversely proportional to the birth order so that the rates for first-borns showed greatest decrease. Since the depression, allowance being made for earlier rises at lower birth orders in a time of rising fertility, the first-, second-, third- and fourth-born rates have risen at amounts inversely proportional to the birth order; for higher birth orders, the rates have attained stability except for a continuation of the predepression declines for seventh- and higher-borns' rates. Since 1947, the rate for first-borns has declined, and apparently gains in the higher... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
