| Abstrakt: |
Introduction: Demographic processes are an important determinant of the workforce pand the human resources in the economy, At the core of the statistical information on the workforce are the demographic indicators - age and gender. In connection with this, the category of the able-bodied population is considered, which is actually the population of working age - from 15 to 64 years. The upper age limit for working capacity is conditional and for the purposes of monitoring of the labor force its upper limit is set to 74 completed years. Aim: Analysis of the age structure of psychiatrists in Bulgaria and preparation of a forecast for the dropout of specialists from the labor market for the period 2022-2037. Material and methods: The main indicators on which data are collected for psychiatrists in the country are age and region (area) of employment. Official information from the register of the Bulgarian Medical Union (BLS) and the National Statistical Institute (NSI) was used to conduct the research. To outline the problems related to the number of psychiatrists, their distribution in the country, statistical data were analyzed at the national and regional level. A number of statistical analyzes were performed through computer data processing, and in addition to that, dynamic series analysis and forecasting techniques were applied. The MS Excel, I IBM SPSS Statistics v. 26 program products were used for the calculations, tabular and graphical presentations. Data from the register of the Bulgarian Medical Union for gender, age and workplace of psychiatrists in Bulgaria were used. Based on a statistical method, the future of psychiatrists is predicted. Results: In the current study, the main reasons for psychiatrists dropping out of the labor market are reaching retirement age or death. The results of the analysis are presented in tabular and graphical form. In 2022, about 40% of psychiatrists in Bulgaria are of retirement age, and the forecast is that this share will progressively increase, reaching 60% as early as 2026. The average age of psychiatrists is 60 years, and in fourregions of Bulgaria it is over 63 years. Discussion: The crisis in psychiatry in Bulgaria has been brewing since the 1960s. However, the necessary measures to promote the specialization of young doctors in this field have not been taken. Conclusion: The situation in psychiatry in Bulgaria is dramatic and it requires many changes to avoid a catastrophe in the coming years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
